🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."