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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd