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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However the latest field is profoundly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending together. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

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